WoW goes mobile, says venture capitalist

A venture capitalist is predicting that a cut-down version of World of Warcraft will be released for mobile in 2008.

"You will be able to play a small version of WoW on your cell to win a small number of experience points", Baris Karadogan, a venture capitalist with ComVentures, reckons in an article featuring his technology predictions for the year.

"The game will be different but it will be the extension of the overall experience। So when you have three hours free, you'll play the real thing, when you have 30 minutes free you'll play a small casual game on your PC that counts towards your experience in the big game and when you have 5 minutes free you'll play the mobile handset version."

Right now we're wearing our extremely large sceptical hats; but as a move forward in the way we interact with MMOs in general, such is surely on the future cards.

In fact, Jeffrey Steefel, exec producer on Turbine's Lord of the Rings Online, suggested exactly this idea when we spoke with him last year about potential future developments the MMO genre.

"I've got this thing called Lord of the Rings that my subscription, depending on how much money I pay, entitles me access to in different ways. Each device, each way of interacting, has a different strength and weakness", Steefel said.

"So I can manage my inventory on a cell phone very easily, I can do crafting on a cell phone. Doing a raid on a console? That's cool. Doing more social things, chatting, maybe that's better on a PC. Think of it that way - I built this game, now I'm going to translate it and put it on this thing, put it on that thing.

"It's a broader vision, it's harder, more risky, but that's where we headed".

Predictions 2008

I made just one prediction last year, that IPTV will flounder in 2007, and got it right. So, enthused by that success, I’m taking a bigger gamble this year - a whole bunch of predictions for digital content in India for 2008:

-- Social Networking: The hype around social networking will mean that more and more media companies will eye that space. So expect some niche social networks around brands and content to launch, replacing forums and discussion boards, but integrated with content. Don’t expect social networks to shut shop - they’ll be up for sale - but they’ll continue to decline as Facebook and Orkut grow in prominence. Some social networks launched over the past couple of years will probably be acquired by media companies to reduce time to market, but no big exits.
-- Bluetooth Marketing infrastructure will come up in Consumer Hotspots - in coffee shops and malls, probably integrated with the Digital Signage Networks already in place. So more interactivity there.
-- Cross Media: I expect this to be the biggest trend in 2008 - media publications using online and mobile to supplement TV, Print and Radio, and vice versa. More push for citizen journalism, as content will be gathered online and on mobile, and also some cases of ‘citizen paparazzi’, maybe for the likes of India TV.
-- Big Media Deals: Expect at least one more cross border big media strategic deal of the NBCU-NDTV, Viacom-Network18, Turner-Miditech and Disney-UTV league...if not more.
-- Advergaming and Branded Content: This will be the year for advergaming, both online and mobile. More and more brands, including media companies, will use casual games, branded portals, and niche social networks to connect with their audience. A lot of this mobile content will be distributed via the bluetooth marketing infrastructure.
-- Outsourcing companies look closer to home: it’s already begun, and expect that trend to continue, both in Gaming and Animation. Lower margins for sure, but it’s about ownership of IP, and valuation play.
-- Funding and acquisition of Content Providers: Original IP will be big game - funding and acquisition for digitization. Also established producers will raise money and look for a bigger, global play.
-- WiFi and WiMax: More hotspots, mostly paid. I think some retail chains will take a gamble and offer free WiFi to users. No WiMax for another year.
-- Funding and Acquisitions in Mobile VAS space: Expect consolidation in the Mobile VAS space as a few will raise more capital by either VC funding or IPO. Some of that capital will be used to acquire some of the smaller niche players, struggling for survival.
-- No 3G, no Mobile TV in 2008, IPTV will continue to flounder: Sorry, but that’s the way it goes...the legal and media battle will switch from 2G spectrum to allocation of 3G spectrum and mobile TV licenses. Deployment of infrastructure across the country will take time, so wait till 2009 (at least). I’ll leave the ‘3G will flop’ prediction for next year. IPTV will continue to flounder in 2008, despite Airtel and Reliance launching their services.
-- Regional Content: Creation and aggregation of regional content for distribution to big media will be a big theme for 2008...perhaps in anticipation of big media deals in 2009. 2008 is the year that they build up a content base.
-- Location based services will be launched, but not take off.
-- Newspapers & Magazines: Indian magazines and newspapers will increase their presence online. More international magazines are going to be launched in India in 2008, but they wont target the online space; they’re after the print bounty.
-- Broadband: no miracles here. It’s going to be a long hard fight, until the last mile gets unbundled, or affordable wireless services are launched. No unbundling of the last mile in 2008.
-- Music: Nokia’s (NYSE: NOK) OVI is expected to be a big boost for music downloads, but I don’t think that will happen unless they launch subscription based services (which is unlikely). The ringtone market will decline, and ringback tone market will grow.
-- Mobile Internet: I don’t believe pay-for-view content on the mobile will grow. I expect more WAP sites for existing Internet portals, but don’t think mobile-only portals will work. There needs to be cross media integration. Mobile Advertising will be mainly search based and on established portals.

So enough soothsaying from me...What’s your take?

Online Ad Industry Groups Take Steps To Self-Police

The online ad industry dodged a bullet when the Federal Trade Commission proposed that internet marketers and sites self-police instead of imposing its own rules, as had been feared. Both the Interactive Advertising Bureau and the Network Advertising Initiative are working on guidelines designed to obviate the need for government interference in online advertising.

I spoke with Mike Zaneis Friday, the IAB’s VP for public policy, the day after his 15-member working group held its sixth meeting to discuss the draft on privacy standards. He hopes to submit the guidelines to the FTC on Feb. 22. The IAB’s task force made up of representatives of AOL (NYSE: TWX), MSN, Yahoo (NSDQ: YHOO) as well as ad networks and web publishers. It formed in September, before the FTC held its town hall meeting with advertisers at the end of October. Zaneis described a three-step process, starting with agreement on broad privacy principles followed by deciding how to apply those principles. The third part will cover possible compliance measures, which could range from audits and inspections to seal of approval similar to what’s offered by the Better Business Bureau.

Meanwhile. the NAI, an online marketing organization whose members also include AOL and Yahoo, is focusing strictly on revising its behavioral targeting standards, ClickZ reports. The group is aiming to complete and submit its revision to the FTC within the next six months. At the moment, the NAI is soliciting members’ views. It’s also considering expanding its ranks—Google (NSDQ: GOOG) recently asked to join and its membership is pending.