Sunday, January 20, 2008

Zynga Raises $10M From Usual Suspects For Gaming SocNet

did you know?

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Tribe.net has been an also ran in the social networking space, but its founder Marc Pincus has street cred for being among those who got it early on. Tribe.net was sold to Cisco, moreover, Pincus was an early investor in Facebook.

Pincus has moved on to launch Zynga Game Network, which has just raised $10M. Fred Wilson's Union Square Ventures led the round along with LinkedIn's Reid Hoffman, VC Brad Feld, Bob Pitman, Andy Thiel, and Avalon Ventures.

Zynga has launched a number of games on MySpace and Facebook and as you might expect they found good uptake - Zynga's poker app claims 5.5M users. This is not hugely impressive given that other simple Facebook game apps like Pirates vs. Ninjas also found huge audiences. But Zynga has ramped up quickly with a headcount of 27 so its well positioned to capitalize on this growth.

Zynga got some early love in the press when the New York Times wrote them up.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Top execs leave Tomb Raider games firm, SCi Entertainment

UK computer games firm, SCi Entertainment, has lost its CEO along with two managing directors a week after takeover talks for the company collapsed. CEO and company founder Jane Cavanagh stepped down, as did Cavanagh's husband and MD of publishing, Bill Ennis, and the MD of studios, Rob Murphy. The departures reportedly follow shareholder and board pressure after the firm, which has been struggling financially, announced last week it had failed to secure a buyer. The departures also follow news that release of the firm's new Tomb Raider title has been delayed by six months.

The departures heralded an almost 50% up-turn for the company's share price, which had reportedly dropped 90% since Aug 2007. According to a report in the Guardian, the company has also been looking, in the last few days, at "various opportunities" to increase its revenue streams. Replacing Cavanagh as CEO is current CFO, Phil Rogers, who joined SCi in Mar from rival games firm Electronic Arts.

SCi Entertainment Group was formed in May 2005 when two of the UK's largest video games publishers, SCi Games and Eidos Interactive, merged. Cavanagh had founded Sci games in 1988. The firm is most famous for its 'Tomb Raider' line of computer games, which were also made into two spin-off Hollywood films, starring Angelina Jolie. The firm has, however, been struggling of late at a generally strong time for the games industry. It was announced this week that the computer games industry grew 47% in the US during 2007.

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Nintendo Power Brings First Sonic RPG Details

It was August of 2007 when some very strange news broke: a new role-playing game was in development for the Nintendo DS, and it would star none other than SEGA's long-legged mascot Sonic the Hedgehog. What's more, it was being made by Canadian developer (and more recently, EA subsidiary) BioWare, makers of Mass Effect, Jade Empire, and Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic.

Other than this, nothing was really known. And, in spite of the high praise received for their prior works, fans and gamers have remained largely skeptical, as the general consensus is that Sonic... well, simply put, his games aren't what they used to be.

Speculation began, as people wondered about everything from the gameplay (would it be action-RPG? Like Paper Mario? Something else?) to the story (based on the comic? The other games? The cartoons? All-new?), and even if Sonic would be crowded out by his ever-expanding list of costars. But over the past several months, BioWare's lips remained sealed, with not so much as even a title for the project.

Until now.

Nintendo Power, via the NeoGAF forums, has finally released a nice chunk of information about the title, now known as Sonic Chronicles: The Dark Brotherhood, which appears in their latest issue.

According to the NeoGAF post, the images seem to imply a more hand-drawn, water-color style, along with remixed classic tunes and "fully animated cut scenes" (their quotes).

In terms of gameplay, the control is said to be performed completely by the touch screen, not unlike Nintendo's The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass, including Elite Beat Agents-styled special attacks which consume "Fatigue Points," rather than Magic Points.

There will be 11 party members available in total, including all the main heavy hitters: Sonic, Tails, Amy, Knuckles, Rouge, Shadow, and Big the Cat (they don't get much heavier than that), each with their own special abilities, such as Tails' flight. The party will have up to four characters in use at a time, and at certain points, you can even split the group into smaller teams.

As for more basic in-game mechanics, the article reveals that battles will indeed be turn-based, though the commands for all party members will be chosen before they follow through as a part of an attempt to keep the action moving fast, as befits Sonic. Battles won't be random, however, as you will be able to see enemies on the field, much like any of the Mario RPGs. Battles will also feature the option for Team Attacks, such as those featured in Chrono Trigger.

When it comes time to level up, players will be able to choose which attributes they would like to raise. In addition, new special moves can be purchased using rings, the game's currency, and subsequently leveled up as well.

Chapters of this title will feature two acts, the first taking place in more familiar Sonic-styled scenarios, and the following act in a darker world, presumably the home of the Dark Brotherhood. As with most RPGs, there will also be side quests, and speaking to NPCs will feature simple dialogue trees, perhaps mimicking those seen in Mass Effect.

Finally, most any RPG that hopes to be worth something has a story, and this game is no different. As this one unfolds, Sonic is on vacation after defeating Eggman two years ago, when he gets a call from Tails that his friendly (if a bit tempermental) rival Knuckles has been kidnapped by a mysterious new group who call themselves the Marauders. What's more, six of the seven Chaos Macguffins--er, Emeralds, are missing. And for once, Dr. Ivo "Eggman" Robotnik isn't the source of the mischief.

However, that's not to say the bad egg is out of the picture entirely, quite the opposite in fact. BioWare states they want to make ol' Julian a credible bad guy again, which makes sense; ever since they went 3D, most of his plans have gotten out of his control, leading to him working with rival Sonic and his friends to save the world. If he ever had any pride as a villain before, it's got to be curled up in the corner, sobbing by now. But BioWare says something about some sort of "twist" between the Doc and Sonic that goes back to the earlier games, though no other details are offered.

Other notes mentioned from the article are that they "want everyone to love Big the Cat," which is no doubt going to cause some degree of wincing among those reading this. Nintendo Power also asked about any possible Wii development, after which BioWare broke out the brooms and chased NP off the property. Or not. In either case, it doesn't sound like they're ready to test the waters of motion control just yet.

If you want more visual representation, be sure to grab the next issue of Nintendo Power and support this sort of thing. Or if you're a cheap tightwad (or maybe just impatient), you can sneak a peek here.

Disney Offers Pirates-Based MMO to Casual Gamers

Disney is demonstrating its new Pirates of the Caribbean Online game, a Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Game (MMO) aimed at casual gamers, for Mac and PC at CES. The game is built within the world of the popular film franchise of the same name, and utilizes the same engine powering ToonTown, Disney's online world for children.

In Pirates, players not surprisingly take on the role of a pirate, and interact with the characters from the movie. Your goal as a player is to advance in level, increase your weapon skills, and rise in notoriety. You increase your skills with hand-to-hand combat (think sabres), learning and using Voodoo, and performing quests. The game also utilizes pirate ships, which can be crewed by your friends, and hunt down other player-controlled ships and corrupt Navy ships.

The game environment currently encompasses much of the Caribbean Sea, with real-world islands that have been made around the movies' themes. Players can interact with NPCs, get quests, form in-game guilds, gamble by playing poker and blackjack with in-game money, and it's even possible to cheat -- and to get caught cheating (beware having your Ace of Hearts be the second one in play).



While much of this sounds like any other MMO, Disney wanted to make sure Pirates was as accessible as possible. To do this, they took some of the simulation-like elements found in hard(er)-core MMOs out of the game. For instance, when you die, you get taken to prison, where you can simply kick your way out (as in the movie). No having to get your body back, and you can just get your sunken ship repaired, even though it was sunk by your opponent.

In addition, characters are not tied to specific servers, and can hop back and forth from server to server to run with friends as needed. The game also allows players to instantly travel to each other once they have learned how to teleport via a Voodoo quest, taking out any tedium associated with long travel-times in-game.

We asked the developers on-hand at CES demonstrating the game why the emphasis on casual gamers, and they pragmatically said, "Because we're Disney." In addition, with the broad appeal of the movie franchise, the company felt that a casual environment would better match the movies' fan base.

Disney has also lowered the barrier to entry with the game by making it downloadable-only. There is no retail box to buy, and thus zero up-front cost to try the game, and users can play the game as long as they want for free. Rather than limiting the trial account by time, you simply can't progress past a certain point without a subscription.

Speaking of subscriptions, Disney is also making Pirates a bit less expensive than other MMOs like World of Warcraft. The first month is US$4.95, and subsequent months are priced at $9.95. The company is also selling subscription cards for those (casual gamers) who might not feel comfortable putting their credit cards online.

The game launched for Mac and Windows in October of 2007, and Disney plans on periodic content expansions that will be included in the subscription cost of the game. The Mac Observer will be reviewing the game in the coming weeks.

WorldWinner Delivers Cash Competitions to iWin.com

WorldWinner today announced an exclusive deal with iWin, Inc. that calls for WorldWinner to manage the Tournament Games component of iWin.com. WorldWinner is a subsidiary of FUN Technologies Inc. and the leading provider of online game competitions for cash and prizes. iWin is a leading developer and publisher of casual games.

As part of the agreement, WorldWinner has developed a co-branded site, available via hyperlink from the Tournament Games section of iWin's Web site. All of WorldWinner's popular games are available as cash tournaments via the co-branded site, which offers users all of the functionality, look and feel of WorldWinner's innovative site experience. iWin players can now compete against millions of players comprising the WorldWinner network, including those from WorldWinner's partner sites, AOL Games, MSN Games, GSN.com and Pogo.com.

"Partnering with iWin is yet another step in our strategy of identifying and partnering with the world's most popular games and lifestyle sites to substantially increase our reach," said Peter Blacklow, president of WorldWinner. "Providing WorldWinner cash competitions on iWin will allow hundreds of thousands of iWin players to discover a new way to experience their favorite casual games."

"WorldWinner has a reputation for offering superior tournament games and we're pleased to deliver that experience to iWin players," said CJ Wolf, CEO of iWin. "iWin players can choose from hundreds of popular casual games available for free or download, and now they can test their skill level in dozens of games by competing for cash and prizes."

Friday, January 11, 2008

Chinese internet portal leads USD11m funding in US games firm, Outspark

US-based casual online multiplayer games company Outspark is receiving USD11m in Series B funding, led by Chinese internet portal firm Tencent Holdings. Previous investors Altos Ventures and DCM also participated. The funding will be used to help Outspark convert Asian online multiplayer games for access by US customers, with Tencent providing consultative and technical support at the Asian end of the process. The company says it will also use the investment to enhance existing titles such as Fiesta and Secret of the Solstice as well as building up its repertoire of new titles through co-operation with international games developers and marketers.

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Online Publisher Geosign Splits Up; Investor Getting Cash Back: Report

Here’s something you don’t see very often: a VC investor getting some cash back after a deal gone sour. In March, we reported on the $160 million funding at Ontario, Canada-based online publisher Geosign. A report from TheStreet.com explains that things haven’t gone so well. Soon after the deal, reports claimed that the company laid off a big chunk of its 230 person workforce and recently the company split into two. Several blogs, see here and here, have been talking about the story for awhile. The split hasn’t been officially announced, which is obviously odd, though TheStreet (NSDQ: TSCM) claims confirmation of it. It appears the company had a Google (NSDQ: GOOG) arbitrage strategy that got hurt when the search engine tweaked its algorithm in an unfavorable manner. Not surprisingly, the company didn’t describe its strategy this way.

The split up has created two companies: eMedia Interactive, which is run by founder Tim Nye, owns the domain names. The advertising business has gone to Moxy Media, which is owned by American Capital—with the deal, the company is getting a “substantial” chunk of its cash back. Moxy Media is now focusing on the lead gen space.

What’s not clear is how much of this crack up was due to something unique at Geosign or if there’s a broader warning for the other well-capitalized domain media plays.

Global media acquisition deals worth USD110bn in 2007

There were 838 media M&A deals across the world in 2007, which, in total, were worth USD110bn, according to the Jordan, Edmiston Group.

The research firm estimates that the number of deals increased 32% on 2006, and that the total amount involved in the transactions grew 79% on the year before. In the first half of the year , transactions worth USD75bn in total were announced. The research firm says there were fewer large deals in the second half of the year, due to the crisis in the credit markets. The online media market accounted for USD43bn worth of deals done in 2007.

There were 555 M&A deals involving online media or marketing companies during the year, with nearly all of the internet giants doing substantial deals. AOL, Google, Yahoo! and Microsoft all bought ad networks or ad delivery firms during the last year.

Microsoft bought aQuantive for USD5.7bn, while Google announced its acquisition of DoubleClick for USD3.1bn. AOL and Yahoo! did smaller deals with ad networks: AOL bought Tacoda for USD275m, and the US search giant acquired Blue Lithium for USD300m.

Monday, January 7, 2008

Page Views And CPMs Are Suppressing Online Advertising Growth and Innovation

The page view may be dead, but page views are still the currency for online display advertising, with most display ads still being bought on the basis of CPM, or cost per thousand ad impressions — and impressions are a function of page views. The problem is that the page view-driven online advertising economy is suppressing online advertising growth and innovation. Here’s why.

Page view-driven advertising is a product of Internet 1.0 advertising, which was modeled after traditional media advertising. But its actually worse than that, because even traditional media values audience above all. Selling online ad impressions is a holdover from a time when online audiences were difficult to measure because people used different IP address and different computers — oh, wait! Online audiences are STILL difficult to measure, with rampant cookie deletion and the same problem of multiple access points for the same person. So instead of delivering advertising to people, we deliver it to pages. And when you charge by the page/impression, the more pages the better.

That’s why online advertising economics are so messed up. Actually, there are two online advertising economies.

There’s search advertising, which ingeniously targets ads to keywords, which are a direct reflection of what’s on someone’s mind. No demographics, cookies, or individual identifiers necessary. It doesn’t matter where I use the search box — the advertising always works. A search results page is microcosm of the larger search advertising economy — it’s profitable at any scale.

The page view/CPM advertising economy is a raw volume game — the Web is awash in page views, and since advertisers are buying page views in large volumes, that forces publishers to bulk up their share, even as the over-supply drives down the price. Behavioral targeting is addressing the problem of huge amounts of low value page views by targeting people rather than pages, based on their use of the high value pages. This is akin to targeting search keywords, but unlike pay-per-click text ads, behavioral targeting display ads are still caught up in the page view economy, which makes it an uphill battle.

As Larry Allen of newly acquired behavioral targeting pioneer TACODA pointed out in an interview with me, online ad spending is still relatively low (particularly as a percentage of all ad spending), so those ad dollars get spread thin across the ever-increasing page view inventory:

There is still a large gap between the volume of ad inventory on the Web, especially when you consider news and social media, and the amount of ad dollars being spent.

But the biggest problem with page views/CPMs is that there could not be a more blunt, less nuanced metric for valuing online media. The newspaper industry, as with so much else in the rapidly evolving media industry, brings this problem into sharp relief.

The Newspaper Association of America just released the results of a custom study done by Nielsen/NetRatings, which had findings that sound like great news:

An average of more than 59 million people (37.6 percent of all active Internet users) visited newspaper Web sites each month during the first quarter, a record number that represents a 5.3 percent increase over the same period a year ago, according to Nielsen//NetRatings NetView custom analysis. During the same time period, the overall Internet audience grew just 2.7 percent.

Even better than the increasing headcount, these people who visit newspaper websites have great attributes:

* Nearly 12 percent (11.9 percent) of those who have visited a newspaper Web site have annual household incomes in excess of $150,000 compared with less than one in 10 (9.3 percent) of the overall Internet audience.
* Nearly nine in 10 (88.1 percent) newspaper Web site visitors have made a purchase online in the last six months compared with 78.9 percent of the overall Internet audience. Four in 10 (41 percent) newspaper Web site visitors are employed in professional or managerial occupations compared with one in three (32.7 percent) of the overall Internet population.
* Nearly three in 10 (28.9 percent) newspaper Web site visitors have sought out or posted a product review online in the past month compared with 16.1 percent of the overall internet population.

So where’s the problem? The only way that advertisers have to value newspaper websites at this media category level is by page views (via MediaPost, since this data is oddly not in the NAA press release):

These same visitors generated nearly 2.7 billion page views per month throughout the second quarter, the NAA reported Monday. That compares to slightly more than 2.5 billion page views during the same period last year. It represents a decrease from 3.0 billion page views in the first quarter.

OK, so page views are down slightly this year, but still, 2.7 billion page views is A LOT — except that, in the page view/CPM economy, it’s not as much as you might think.

Let’s say newspaper websites have an average of 3 display ads per page, which would be 8.1 billion ad impressions. If you divide 8.1 billion by 1,000, you get 8,100,000 thousands of page views. If an advertisers paid (a generous) $30 CPM, that would be $30 x 8.1 million, which is $243 million per month or $2.9 billion a year.

OK, that’s a lot of money, so where exactly IS the problem? Well, that’s $2.9 billion in CPM-driven online media value for the ENTIRE NEWSPAPER INDUSTRY! An industry that NAA currently values at $59 billion.

But this is all just silly back-of-the-envelope math, right? Well, actually…

Advertising expenditures for newspaper Web sites increased by 22.3 percent to $750 million in the first quarter versus the same period a year ago, according to preliminary estimates from the Newspaper Association of America.

So, $750 million per quarter is…that’s right, $3 billion a year. Looks like newspapers are indeed monetizing their page views at an average rate of $30 per thousand ad impressions, or $90 per thousand page views, using my assumption of 3 ads per page. Not too shabby by online media standards. Of course, newspapers don’t sell anywhere near all of their online advertising on a CPM basis, but it sure puts all the numbers in perspective.

That said, here’s the real scary math:

On a CPM basis, to make $59 billion in online ad revenue, at a $30 CPM, you need 1,966,666,666,666 ad impressions. That’s right nearly 2 TRILLION impressions, or 655 BILLION page views at 3 ads per page, which is 24 TIMES as many page views as newspaper websites currently have.

I’m picking on newspapers here because they are at the nexus of the transformation of media, but the problem with the page view/CPM economy applies to every online media company, including every traditional media company website and every Web 2.0 startup.

Google was the first online media company to break out of the CPM/page view trap in a big way — no wonder they have $10 billion in ad revenue.

Search advertising, driven by a dynamic marketplace for keywords, was a BIG idea. Behavioral targeting might prove to be a another big idea. But it’s going to take a lot of big ideas for the online advertising economy to cast off the page view/CPM albatross.

Sunday, January 6, 2008

8 Reasons Why The TV Studios Will Die

Recently, I have met with many people including top executives from most of the largest studios as well as people from some of the top internet companies that are building studios, top investors in the VC world that are turning towards the studio business and my goodness, my perception of the industry has really changed. I have met with plenty of people over the years but the discussion was usually around Rocketboom. This time, they all knew what Rocketboom was and I didn’t need to explain, I was able to pry into their plans and visions and with a new context for understanding, listen.

My number one takeaway, a perception I did not have before, is that the studios are probably not going to make it. I always assumed and have always said that I believe the studios will make it through the transition on top but now I’m not so sure.

Why do I think this? The story is public, it just requires putting everything into perspective.

As a starting point, we now take for granted that the top few studios (ABC, NBC, CBS) have lost control of the future market and must make way for more studios that will appear. While they may seem well positioned to do that, my new hypothesis is that they are not well positioned at all. On the contrary, they are probably in just about the worst position any company could be in. More than likely, the studios will either fall apart or break up into small pieces, become engulfed by something much bigger (maybe even a 19-year old), morph into a sub-faction of the greater media industry or even some other industry, or maybe survive without much influence as just one of many.

While no doubt it is possible to make it through on top, pretty much ALL of the qualities that the major networks are good at are no longer needed. We don’t need them to identify talent for us. The promotion and distribution channels are now open and cheap or free for the clever. We can have share in the rights to our own work without them. The list goes on and on. The networks have shown a poor record in all of the qualities that will be needed to rise up as the new industry leaders.

TV is still an incredibly powerful medium. TV makes much bigger stars and commands much bigger audiences and way more money than anything online, moving image-wise. But obviously that is changing drastically at a rapid pace that is suddenly very surprising to even me, as brought on by the very important impact of the writers strike. The strike really is the astroid from outer space that is covering the planet with dust night now.

There is plenty more to say which I will leave for another day, lets jump right into the top 8 indications that the traditional TV industry is not well prepared for the upcoming change in business around a new media industry.

1. Audience Exodus. While the rest of the world is blooming online, TV has no new content to offer right now. Over the last several weeks (a very short period of time in the history of TV), some of the most important shows have lost a breathtaking number of audience members. The NYTimes just reported that The Daily Show with John Stewart audience numbers are down 38% since the strike began. The Colbert report is down 28%. When the last strike occurred almost 20 years ago, there was no where for the audience to go. They had to return back to whatever the stations decided to play at that time. That’s obviously not the case now, there are plenty of other places to go that are actually better and not dependent on time. The stations are instantly losing their best customers, the people who have a habit of showing up.

2. Expendable Middle-Person. TV is to advertising as America is to oil. That is to say, TV is entirely and completely dependent on the advertising industry and the ad dollar for its survival. The studios have never been able to own that business for themselves and have instead depended on selling to the ad buyers, usually once a year in a major upfront session. If you attended the 2007 ad buyers week where the TV studios rolled out the red carpet for the ad buying industry with the cheesiest shenanigan of a show and dance, playing the role of middle people who make the connections between things like Lost and Coke, thats what it all comes down to. The network simply manages that connection, themselves a middle person. When a business has an opportunity to grow and improve, this type of position is the first to go.

The advertising industry is changing on its own without the TV studios. 2007 saw the beginning of a wild flight by the ad buyers to shift their spending to online content, leaving the studios out of the loop in how the business of the future will be done. In the words of the TNS Media Intelligence news report, “The anemic growth rates in measured ad spending reflect a market that is under stress from cyclical business conditions and fundamental structural changes”.

What more, consider a few of the headlines just this year on the changing landscape of advertising companies: Microsoft buys aQantive for $6 Billion. Google buys Double Click for $3.1 Billion. Yahoo buys Right Media for $1/2 Billion. Not to mention all of the smaller startup ad networks, as well as content studios with their own ad networks that are rising up. Apparently Next New Networks has racked up 100 million complete views from You-Tube and that was done without ABC, NBC or CBS as part of the conversation. Perhaps the greatest threat of all is the possibility that the Writers Strike will drag on through January and February, causing the TV stations to have almost nothing in store to sell for fresh content at the 2008 upfront season.

3. Unsupportive. There is an old saying in Hollywood that 99% of all actors are out of work. This is still the saying today. While we don’t need to make any jokes about all of the actors out there without much talent that still find an audience online, it’s fair to say that more than a fraction of a single percent of the actors out there are very talented. If Hollywood can only support a fraction of a percent, then they are going to lose out on supporting the greater percentage of the talented actors out there. Extend this to the rest of the creative industry and it’s easy to see how a fraction of a percent without any control will become almost irrelevant.

4. Dependent on Exclusivity. Studios used to depended on their exclusive rights over show distribution in order to compete against the other networks. Soon, they will not be able to hold on to their exclusivity. Consider the possible fate of NBC: NBC, which has a handful of breakout hit shows like Heroes for instance, has started fresh with a new online strategy just this year after not being able to play with Apple. Their new project Hulu is dependent not on their own brand to drive traffic to the site but rather their exclusive deals with shows like Heroes which you can’t get anywhere else. So how many shows does NBC/Hulu have that will make it worth it to watch on Hulu? And more importantly, how many shows will NBC have in the future that can remain exclusive just with NBC? Heroes, which is now it’s own healthy business would certainly see a much greater profit margin if they could eventually break away and exclude NBC from such an enormous share of their revenue.

5. Rogue Reputation. Studios are meanies. With regards to the strike, only 14% of people polled favored the studio’s side of the argument. If the future of the media business is going to have anything to do with making honest deals and treating talent fairly, the TV studio networks do not have a solid reputation and might even be at odds with the kinds of deals that are much more lucrative from the sea of other budding and capable support systems out there.

6. Unplugged. Quarterlife. Need I say more? Perhaps the best experiment to date on what it would be like to take a traditional TV drama, shorten it down to 10 minute episodes in structure, pre record a whole season and throw it up online, shows that you can’t really do that. It really takes a long time to build something up that is a series and will strike a chord in a way that is truly social. Quarterlife missed the mark. Even more revealing are the comments left on the NewTeevee blog by one of the producers who seems to be having a difficult time interacting with the online world.

7. Ineffectual. Probably the number one best commentary I have seen on the effect of the writers strike, something that was otherwise moving along too slow, is the fact that the talent in Hollywood finally got a break and could look up to notice what is going on online and thus participate in the epiphany. Its ironic that the best talent in the world is the last to wake up and smell the roses, but that situation is being forced for the better. As touched on with this LA Times article, “the future belongs to a tantalizing new hyphenate: the writer-entrepreneur.

If could point to just one important point for any writers in Hollywood out there, it would be this one. “The stars became free agents long ago. In the last few years, with billions of private-equity dollars flooding the business, the studios have lost their lock on financing too.”

8. Luddites. The major networks have been virtually helpless on the tech side of things which will control the distribution channels in the future. They have failed again, and again and again to see it coming and to take adequate action.

All in all, this is not a shame for the studios, everyone is trying to figure it out. In context of my thesis however, the studios are in no better position than anyone else to figure it out. One might even argue that they are handicapped due to their current structures, unable to make big enough changes quick enough. While the studios themselves used to be bigger than the content they served, now its the content that is more the king.

Saturday, January 5, 2008

WoW goes mobile, says venture capitalist

A venture capitalist is predicting that a cut-down version of World of Warcraft will be released for mobile in 2008.

"You will be able to play a small version of WoW on your cell to win a small number of experience points", Baris Karadogan, a venture capitalist with ComVentures, reckons in an article featuring his technology predictions for the year.

"The game will be different but it will be the extension of the overall experience। So when you have three hours free, you'll play the real thing, when you have 30 minutes free you'll play a small casual game on your PC that counts towards your experience in the big game and when you have 5 minutes free you'll play the mobile handset version."

Right now we're wearing our extremely large sceptical hats; but as a move forward in the way we interact with MMOs in general, such is surely on the future cards.

In fact, Jeffrey Steefel, exec producer on Turbine's Lord of the Rings Online, suggested exactly this idea when we spoke with him last year about potential future developments the MMO genre.

"I've got this thing called Lord of the Rings that my subscription, depending on how much money I pay, entitles me access to in different ways. Each device, each way of interacting, has a different strength and weakness", Steefel said.

"So I can manage my inventory on a cell phone very easily, I can do crafting on a cell phone. Doing a raid on a console? That's cool. Doing more social things, chatting, maybe that's better on a PC. Think of it that way - I built this game, now I'm going to translate it and put it on this thing, put it on that thing.

"It's a broader vision, it's harder, more risky, but that's where we headed".

Predictions 2008

I made just one prediction last year, that IPTV will flounder in 2007, and got it right. So, enthused by that success, I’m taking a bigger gamble this year - a whole bunch of predictions for digital content in India for 2008:

-- Social Networking: The hype around social networking will mean that more and more media companies will eye that space. So expect some niche social networks around brands and content to launch, replacing forums and discussion boards, but integrated with content. Don’t expect social networks to shut shop - they’ll be up for sale - but they’ll continue to decline as Facebook and Orkut grow in prominence. Some social networks launched over the past couple of years will probably be acquired by media companies to reduce time to market, but no big exits.
-- Bluetooth Marketing infrastructure will come up in Consumer Hotspots - in coffee shops and malls, probably integrated with the Digital Signage Networks already in place. So more interactivity there.
-- Cross Media: I expect this to be the biggest trend in 2008 - media publications using online and mobile to supplement TV, Print and Radio, and vice versa. More push for citizen journalism, as content will be gathered online and on mobile, and also some cases of ‘citizen paparazzi’, maybe for the likes of India TV.
-- Big Media Deals: Expect at least one more cross border big media strategic deal of the NBCU-NDTV, Viacom-Network18, Turner-Miditech and Disney-UTV league...if not more.
-- Advergaming and Branded Content: This will be the year for advergaming, both online and mobile. More and more brands, including media companies, will use casual games, branded portals, and niche social networks to connect with their audience. A lot of this mobile content will be distributed via the bluetooth marketing infrastructure.
-- Outsourcing companies look closer to home: it’s already begun, and expect that trend to continue, both in Gaming and Animation. Lower margins for sure, but it’s about ownership of IP, and valuation play.
-- Funding and acquisition of Content Providers: Original IP will be big game - funding and acquisition for digitization. Also established producers will raise money and look for a bigger, global play.
-- WiFi and WiMax: More hotspots, mostly paid. I think some retail chains will take a gamble and offer free WiFi to users. No WiMax for another year.
-- Funding and Acquisitions in Mobile VAS space: Expect consolidation in the Mobile VAS space as a few will raise more capital by either VC funding or IPO. Some of that capital will be used to acquire some of the smaller niche players, struggling for survival.
-- No 3G, no Mobile TV in 2008, IPTV will continue to flounder: Sorry, but that’s the way it goes...the legal and media battle will switch from 2G spectrum to allocation of 3G spectrum and mobile TV licenses. Deployment of infrastructure across the country will take time, so wait till 2009 (at least). I’ll leave the ‘3G will flop’ prediction for next year. IPTV will continue to flounder in 2008, despite Airtel and Reliance launching their services.
-- Regional Content: Creation and aggregation of regional content for distribution to big media will be a big theme for 2008...perhaps in anticipation of big media deals in 2009. 2008 is the year that they build up a content base.
-- Location based services will be launched, but not take off.
-- Newspapers & Magazines: Indian magazines and newspapers will increase their presence online. More international magazines are going to be launched in India in 2008, but they wont target the online space; they’re after the print bounty.
-- Broadband: no miracles here. It’s going to be a long hard fight, until the last mile gets unbundled, or affordable wireless services are launched. No unbundling of the last mile in 2008.
-- Music: Nokia’s (NYSE: NOK) OVI is expected to be a big boost for music downloads, but I don’t think that will happen unless they launch subscription based services (which is unlikely). The ringtone market will decline, and ringback tone market will grow.
-- Mobile Internet: I don’t believe pay-for-view content on the mobile will grow. I expect more WAP sites for existing Internet portals, but don’t think mobile-only portals will work. There needs to be cross media integration. Mobile Advertising will be mainly search based and on established portals.

So enough soothsaying from me...What’s your take?

Online Ad Industry Groups Take Steps To Self-Police

The online ad industry dodged a bullet when the Federal Trade Commission proposed that internet marketers and sites self-police instead of imposing its own rules, as had been feared. Both the Interactive Advertising Bureau and the Network Advertising Initiative are working on guidelines designed to obviate the need for government interference in online advertising.

I spoke with Mike Zaneis Friday, the IAB’s VP for public policy, the day after his 15-member working group held its sixth meeting to discuss the draft on privacy standards. He hopes to submit the guidelines to the FTC on Feb. 22. The IAB’s task force made up of representatives of AOL (NYSE: TWX), MSN, Yahoo (NSDQ: YHOO) as well as ad networks and web publishers. It formed in September, before the FTC held its town hall meeting with advertisers at the end of October. Zaneis described a three-step process, starting with agreement on broad privacy principles followed by deciding how to apply those principles. The third part will cover possible compliance measures, which could range from audits and inspections to seal of approval similar to what’s offered by the Better Business Bureau.

Meanwhile. the NAI, an online marketing organization whose members also include AOL and Yahoo, is focusing strictly on revising its behavioral targeting standards, ClickZ reports. The group is aiming to complete and submit its revision to the FTC within the next six months. At the moment, the NAI is soliciting members’ views. It’s also considering expanding its ranks—Google (NSDQ: GOOG) recently asked to join and its membership is pending.

Friday, January 4, 2008

China Plans To Restrict Online Videos; Effect on Private Companies Still Unclear

It's the age of online content restrictions: Australia, Japan and the evergreen efforts of China. In an effort to further regulate internet content, China's State Administration of Radio, Film and Television (SARFT) and the Ministry of Information Industry (MII) have approved new rules governing videos posted on video sharing sites. Though it wasn't clear how these restrictions would affect local and foreign providers, the government has stipulated that video-hosting web sites must obtain an "Online Audio-Visual Broadcasting License" and be either state-owned or state-controlled. Excerpts of the translated policy can be found here.

Effective Jan. 31, the policy also requires online video broadcasters to delete and report videos that involve national secrets, hurt the country's reputation, disrupt social stability, or promote pornography, reports AP. Those who violate the new rules may receive a warning from broadcasting authorities and be fined up to RMB 30,000 (about $4,100). The rules also say, "Those who provide Internet video services should insist on serving the people, serve socialism… and abide by the moral code of socialism."

A WSJ story here says that executives at many video-sharing sites are taking a wait-and-see approach toward the regulations after they go into effect. Also, it was unclear how the regulations would affect foreign video-sharing sites that are popular in China, such as YouTube.com.

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

We Want Puzzles and Card Games

Looking for where to focus any new casual gaming projects? Then the latest survey (this one from Parks Associates) can help. Bottom line is that the majority of casual gamers are interested in Puzzles and Card Games, some 55%, with word and arcade games at 32% and 33% respectively. This compares to 'portable gamers' (eg the PSP and DS users) who almost equally look for Sports, Action, Driving and First Person Shooters for their kicks.

“In the mobile gaming industry, consumer awareness lags behind technological advancements,” said Yuanzhe (Michael) Cai, Director, Broadband and Gaming, Parks Associates. “New 3D and multiplayer mobile games look great in demos, but casual games are where the money is and will be for the next few years.”

Here's the relevant table, take from their web version of the report

From Parks Assoicates Gaming Report

Miniclip, repsect..

“This is more of a playpen than an office,” says Rob Small as he welcomes us into Miniclip’s headquarters. He’s not joking. The floor of the übertrendy Hoxton office is littered with games consoles, radio-controlled toys, Action Men figures and electric guitars. Taking pride of place in the middle of the office is a pool table.

Small is quick to explain these toys aren’t distractions: they’re market research. “Miniclip has one of the biggest ‘tween’ audiences in the world. If you want to think like a 12-year-old, you have to play like one.”

His dedication is paying off. Miniclip boasts 35 million users, and half of all broadband users in northern Europe have visited the site. “We pump out 100 terabytes a day, half the bandwidth of YouTube,” reveals Small.

The site isn’t exactly Web 2.0. It’s a games site: simple, easy-to-play, hard-to-master games. All the games are played through a browser – simply log on and you’re off. There’s something for everyone: shoot-’em-up fans play Commando and table tennis addicts fl ex their skills on the virtual table. There are more than 350 games, and you can play them all for free.

Small was fresh out of university when he founded the company with Tihan Presbie in 2001. The pair had seen the phenomenal growth in internet businesses and wanted a slice of the pie. The gaming angle presented itself when they stumbled across a nifty program called Macromedia Flash. Small was an avid gamer and saw the potential in creating online games with smaller file sizes that could be easily run through a browser.

The site launched with a bang: Miniclip’s first creation was a dancing game featuring George Bush as a 1970s-style disco dancer. Dancing Bush enabled gamers to put the US president through his paces to the title track from Saturday Night Fever. “I filmed Tihan dancing in the kitchen,” says Small, “opened the Teach Yourself to Code Flash manual at page one, and stuck on George Bush’s head.”

Gamers could choose the dance moves, from a jive boogie to the splits. Small and Presbie sent it to 4,000 users, family, friends, and a few folk who’d signed up to the site out of curiosity. The game spread like wildfire. Within two months, two million people had seen the clip, and Fox News was sniffing around to find out why a 24-year-old Englishman was making satirical games about the US president.

Miniclip primarily targets 10- to 18-year-olds. These tweens are an extremely valuable user-base, with the biggest spending power of any demographic – twice as much as 20- to 30-year-olds. Miniclip makes most of its revenue from advertisers, eager to tug on tweens’ purse strings – or rather, those of their parents.

Advertisers that want to target this audience have increasingly limited opportunities. Kids are spending less time watching TV and more time online, but sites such as MySpace and YouTube, stalwarts of tween traffic, pose a risky proposition for advertisers. A company promoting a new doll will not want the banner to appear next to Goth-babe’s MySpace “Page of Sin”, and certainly not beside footage of a car crash on YouTube.

There is a market squeeze, and Miniclip is doing the squeezing by providing advertising space next to consistently suitable content. And with gamers spending more time on every page while they try to better their high scores, kids are staring at the ads for longer.

Miniclip is a buzz-generator. The Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest game was released on the site to coincide with its general release. The Chicken Little game had 16 million plays in three weeks. “What better time to connect with your target audience than when they’re having fun?” says Small.

From homepage takeovers to “advergames”, Miniclip has pulled out all the stops to help advertisers part with their cash, totting up a £12m turnover last year, with a profit margin of 32 per cent.

Embrace the pirates

Piracy doesn’t affect the site. Far from it: Small encourages sharing. The games are browser-based, so users can pinch the code for their own webpages or blogs. “We knew that people were going to take content from the site. They were taking music, films etc.

The upshot of this decision was that when users enjoyed a game, and decided to stick it on a webpage, their friends would see it and become Miniclip users themselves. Viral marketing strikes again â“ and Miniclip is a pioneer of this kind of content dissemination. “We were letting users distribute our content way before YouTube was allowing people to copy and paste the little embed code,” says Small. “There are now around 300,000 websites that use our content, from Tommy’s little homepage on Geocities through to FHM.”

Most of Miniclip’s gamers are regulars, coming back several times a month. The challenge, with more than 100 million visits a month, is to keep coming up with new games.

That’s why Small fills the office with kids’ toys; it helps the developers to empathise with their target audience. Miniclip releases a couple of games every week, and each is around three months in the making.

After a quick headcount and some elementary maths, it’s obvious that with 11 staff in the office, the numbers don’t tally. So who’s writing the games? “We only co-ordinate things from here. There’s a vast network of developers across the globe writing games for us, from small companies to bedroom coders,” says Small. “I’ve never met the majority of my employees face to face, we just communicate over instant messenger and I either buy the copyright or license the games from them. This is a modern way to do business.”

Tween rivalry

There are precious few contenders vying directly for supremacy of the tween. The likes of MSN and Yahoo!, with their dedicated gaming channels, pose more of a threat. But Small is disdainful. “Yahoo! and MSN have a large number of users in their games sections, or claim to, because they move users from various other channels on their sites. They are very large destination websites. The majority of traffic comes in to check their mail; the games products are cross-pollinated within that traffic.”

Bandwidth is a far bigger issue for the game boy. “It’s by far our biggest overhead,” Small says. Bandwidth constraints have plagued the company since its inception. “It’s so frustrating when you’ve got content on your website that people want to access, but they can’t. A lot of the hosting companies con you by promising unlimited bandwidth. What they actually mean is ‘you can use a bit of bandwidth but when it becomes too much, we’re going to shut the valve’. And that’s what they do.” To combat the problem, Miniclip now serves the website from two dedicated data centres, in Miami and Madrid, containing hundreds of servers.

Intriguingly, Miniclip is only scratching the surface here. Small forecasts growth from 35 million to 55 million users by December. Will Miniclip turn our youth into antisocial robots? “Rubbish!” says Small. “I think the games encourage more interaction. In fact, networking and gaming are gradually merging into one. Some of our users got together and organised a convention in Las Vegas not long ago. Kids in school talk about the games they’ve played. The games on Miniclip are casual, they’re not like World of Warcraft where people will sit for ten hours a day playing frantically.”

Plane sailing

Opportunities abound for the company. In fact, the sky’s the limit. Literally. “The games you get on planes are diabolical,” sniffs Small. “The system is a glorified PC under your seat. They cost millions of pounds to fit and they’re out of date within a few years. We’re hoping to have our games embedded into a handheld device that can be easily updated, Nintendo DS-style.”

Small has also been trying his hand at educational games. He’s been spurred on by the popularity of Anagramatic, an anagram-solving game. “Kids are playing our games anyway, so they might as well learn something at the same time.”

If Miniclip, already popular with pupils, gets further endorsement from teachers for its learning games, thousands more schools will catch the bug. “Once a kid in school sees the site, the next thing you know, the whole school’s playing on it. Our challenge is to attract that one kid.”

Since his dalliances with George Bush â“ Dancing Bush was swiftly followed by Bush Shoot-Out and Bush Aerobics â“ Small has hung up his coding manual to concentrate on running the company. Not that he is complaining: “This job is a boy’s dream. I have friends who are bankers, solicitors... they dread going into the office every day. Sunday-night blues is not something I’ve ever had â“ I look forward to Monday morning.”

His love for the company has made him skittish about outside investment â“ “I didn’t want investors dragging on our coat-tails asking us why we’re doing stuff” â“ and Miniclip is one of the few remaining top websites under private ownership.

It’s hard to imagine the polished, articulate Small at a loss about anything. He airs his opinions with conviction: there definitely won’t be another dotcom crash, conference addicts who gas on podiums about their companies generally protest too much. This is the attitude required to keep an online business going for six years â“ “we’re old hands in this industry” â“ especially when your target audience keeps growing up.

Small looks strangely ageless, as though his passion for games will keep him eternally young. His favourite is Golf Ace, but there’s little chance of practising his swing in real life â“ “I’m permanently strapped to my laptop”.

We take one last look at the gaming paradise and Small sends us on our way with his potted history of online trends: “A couple of years ago, it was the year of social networking. Last year, with the YouTube deal, it was the year of video.” No prizes for guessing the Big Woo for 2007: “It’s all about online gaming.”

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